You Should Hope Your Favourite Team Does Not Sign Jake Guentzel

With the Florida Panthers defeating the Edmonton Oilers in the Stanley Cup Final, the NHL's 2023-24 season has officially come to an end which means over the next, teams will now begin to put their rosters in place via the draft, trades, and free agency.

On July 1st when free agency opens, one of the premier free agents that will be on the market is 29-year-old winger Jake Guentzel, who last played with the Carolina Hurricanes after being traded from the Pittsburgh Penguins at the trade deadline in March.

If teams want to secure the two-time 40-goal scorer's services for next season and beyond, they will need to be prepared to cough up a lot of dough. Based on multiple reports, Guentzel's contract demands will likely be in the range of 8.8-9.5 million dollars a year on a seven-year commitment when he hits the open market on Canada Day.

Guentzel is a great player and can contribute to a cup contending with his goal-scoring ability as well as playoff experience as he is a two champion. However, If those reports are true, I would not feel comfortable committing to Guentzel for that long of term for those amounts of dollars.

As an NHL who has always been fascinated by the team-building aspect of the league, one thing I have noticed over the years is that for teams who pry the biggest name on the free agent market from another team, that big signing typically does not result in winning a Stanley Cup (aside from the Golden Knights Signing Alex Pietrangelo in 2020).

Biggest Contracts Handed Out Over The Years & How They Turned Out:

2023- Pierre Luc-Dubious: 8-Years, 68Mil, Los Angeles Kings (Traded From Winnipeg)

Result Thus Far: Traded to Capitals one year later in a salary dump

2022- Johnny Gaudreau: 7-Years, 68.25Mil, Columbus Blue Jackets

Result Thus Far: Gaudreau has had the two worst seasons of his career in Columbus

2021- Dougie Hamilton: 7-Years, 63Mil, New Jersey Devils

Result Thus Far: Devils Have Made Playoffs 1 out of the 3 Seasons, Hamilton missed most of the 2023-24 season.

2020- Alex Pietrangelo: 7-Years, 61.6Mil, Vegas Golden Knights

Result Thus Far: No regrets here, Pietrangelo was a key contributor to the Golden Knights 2023 Title Run.

2019- Artemi Panarin: 7-Years, 81.5Mil, New York Rangers

Result Thus Far: Panarin has been a rockstar in New York and one of the league's best players. However, the Rangers have not won a title yet despite having one of the most loaded rosters in the league over the last three seasons.

2018- John Tavares: 7-Years, 77Mil, Toronto Maple Leafs

Result Thus Far: The Maple Leafs have won one playoff series in the six seasons Tavares has been with the team. I would say they would have liked to have gotten more out of this major investment.

As you can see, some of these moves have turned out great for teams who have gotten the production they paid for with these deals. That being said, there is also the potential that your new star free-agent acquisition ends up quickly becoming a negative asset that you either lose value on or need to attach assets to get off that deal.

I would also add that Guentzel although a great player, was nowhere near the skill level of the forwards who got big deals on July 1 such as; Gaudreau, Panarin, and Tavares when they hit the open market.

Aside from the Golden Knights and now the Panthers, who made a huge signing in 2019 as well when they signed goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky (which by the way, I am old enough to remember buyout possibilities being discussed with Bobrovsky in 2021 & 2022), teams typically do not win the Stanley Cup by breaking the bank on one player in free agency.

The formula to winning a cup has been by drafting and developing players who either help contribute on your roster good enough to be a part of your cup contender or show enough potential that they become desired assets across the league where you can then ship them off in deals to get players you feel will make more of an impact. For example, how do the Sabres & Panthers feel about the Sam Reinhart trade now?

Buffalo potentially got their goaltender of the future, while the Panthers turned Reinhart into a 57-goal scorer who scored the Stanley Cup winner for the Cats in 2024.

Playoff caliber teams who have been mentioned as possible landing spots for Guentzel have been; the Vancouver Canucks, Boston Bruins, Nashville Predators, and the Toronto Maple Leafs to name a few teams on Guentzel's radar.

Let's use the Canucks as an example, instead of giving Guentzel all that money, why not sign a Tyler Toffoli and Vladimir Tarasenko type players on similar or possibly even cheaper contracts which would also be shorter-term? I would try and get the most production possible with your cap space that could unreal depth that could surround your already elite offence.

In conclusion, if I were a General Manager, based on what I've gathered over the years, I would not go name hunting in free agency as based on a majority of NHL history, championships are not won by handing out blank checks to players you just met. you win by; developing your players, extending those you believe in, and using the trade market when you look to make your big move when you feel you're on the cusp.