Finally, after Week 3 marked my first winning week of this weekly post, let’s see if we can ride this momentum into Week 4 with 5 of my favorite picks for this weekend's slate.
Weekly Bets Record:
Overall Bets: 5-10
Against the Spread (ATS): 1-2
Underdog Moneyline Pick: 0-3
Anytime Touchdown: 2-1
Player Prop: 1-2
Over/Under: 1-2
Against The Spread: Pittsburgh Steelers -1.5 (-110) @ Indianapolis Colts
Typically, I try to stay away from betting on road favorites, but in this case, the number is quite reasonable, and I love the matchup for the Steelers. While the Colts currently possess one of the top offensive lines in football, they have yet to face a defense as strong as the Steelers, or a player like T.J. Watt. On the other side of the ball, Indy's run defense has been awful this season, and knowing how Steelers OC Arthur Smith likes to call a game, expect the Steelers to feature the run game heavily once again. I think the Steelers' defense forces Anthony Richardson into multiple turnovers, while their offense feasts on the Colts' weak run defense and maintains time of possession throughout the afternoon. I'll take the Steelers to cover on the road.
Underdog Moneyline Pick: Cleveland Browns (+110) @ Las Vegas Raiders
Betting on the Cleveland Browns is probably not a great idea in most scenarios, so I don’t suggest following this, but based on this weekend's slate, it's the pick I feel most comfortable with. Raiders star pass rusher Maxx Crosby hasn't practiced all week, and it seems things are trending towards number 98 not suiting up due to injury. Meanwhile, in Cleveland, despite earlier concerns about star pass rusher Myles Garrett's availability, the reigning Defensive Player of the Year has stated that he plans to play on Sunday. After last week's disastrous loss to the Panthers, I wouldn't be shocked if the Raiders bounce back and win, but I’m going with the team that has the better coach and the best player on the field. Give me the Browns to pull off the upset in Las Vegas.
Anytime Touchdown Scorer: Marvin Harrison Jr. (+120) Vs Washington Commanders
After a disappointing NFL debut in Week 1, Marvin Harrison Jr. has started to find his footing in the league, scoring three touchdowns in the last two games and I like him to continue his strong play on Sunday against the Commanders. Washington has the worst pass defense in football and has struggled against some of the league’s top wideouts, including Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, Ja'Marr Chase, and fellow rookie Malik Nabers. Each of them had their best game of the season against this Commanders defense. I wouldn’t be surprised if Harrison continues this trend with his best outing of his rookie campaign so far, as I expect him to find the end zone for the third straight week.
Player Prop: Joe Burrow Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-155)
Despite the loss on Monday Night, Joe Burrow looked dominant for the first time since returning from wrist surgery in the Bengals last game against the Washington Commanders. Burrow threw for 324 yards and 3 touchdowns, and while it was against the Commanders' weak pass defense, which I’ve already mentioned, this Panthers' secondary is not much better. As Burrow gets more comfortable post-injury, I expect him and the Bengals to go into Carolina this weekend and dominate with their season essentially on the line. Burrow should be able to air it out against this weak Panthers defense, and I see him throwing for at least two touchdowns on Sunday.
Game Total: Washington Commanders @ Arizona Cardinals Under 50.5 Points (-110)
I understand that the Cardinals and Commanders may have the two worst defenses in football, which should result in a lot of points, but in my opinion, 51 is just too high. Since both teams' defenses are so pedestrian, their best course of action may be to keep them off the field as long as possible. Therefore, I expect both teams to utilize the run game more than we might anticipate, which would result in a lot of running clock and fewer possessions. With those factors in mind, I think the game will go under 50.5 points.
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