The opening weekend of the NFL season was a mixed bag for me in terms of my picks. While I had a good week picking the games straight up (12-4) and picking every game against the spread (8-7-1), the five-different-bets challenge turned out to be quite the challenge, as I only got one pick correct. Despite the less-than-ideal result, the good news is that it's still early in the season, and I have plenty of time to get back on track. After doing a lot more research this week, I’m confident that this week will be better. LFG!
Weekly Bets Record:
Overall Bets: 1-4
Against the Spread (ATS): 0-1
Underdog Moneyline Pick: 0-1
Anytime Touchdown: 1-0
Player Prop: 0-1
Over/Under: 0-1
Against The Spread: Dallas Cowboys -6 (-110) Vs New Orleans Saints
I love the Cowboys -6 in Week 2. Dallas has been dominant at home over the last two regular seasons. They have gone 12-5 ATS and an even more staggering 16-1 straight up at Jerry World over the last two years. I think this line should at least be a touchdown, but New Orleans is probably getting some points after last week's blowout win over the worst team in football, the Carolina Panthers. I think the Saints’ weak offensive line gets tested early and often, where that constant pressure will force Derek Carr into taking sacks and turning the ball over. If that's the case, Dallas should have friendly field position throughout the game where their offense will get going. I think Dallas wins by at least two scores.
Underdog Money Line Pick: New York Giants (+105) @ Washington Commanders
Let me be clear: betting on the New York Giants to win a football game is probably not my best idea. But what if I told you that you could bet on the Washington Commanders to lose a game with plus-money odds? Does that at least sound better? After last week's disaster, it’s tough to have any confidence in Daniel Jones right now. Although, to his credit, Danny Dimes is 5-1-1 in his career against Washington, so clearly, he does feel comfortable going up against this division rival. Apart from Jones' surprising success against the Commanders, what really pushes me toward picking the Giants in this game is my belief that New York's defensive front is the best unit in this matchup, with players such as Kayvon Thibodeaux, Brian Burns, and Dexter Lawrence. With Washington's lackluster offensive line, I think the G-Men will frustrate Jayden Daniels for most of the day, allowing the Giants to secure a road win in Washington.
Anytime Touchdown Scorer: Cooper Kupp (-110) @ Arizona Cardinals
Ladies and gentlemen, get ready to welcome back the 2021 level of production from Cooper Kupp. With Puka Nacua out for at least four weeks, the former triple-crown winner is once again the clear WR1 in the Rams' offense. As a result, Matt Stafford is going to light up his favorite receiver with a monstrous number of targets. Not to mention, Arizona's defense is one of the league's weakest units, and because of that, even without Nacua, I expect the Rams to consistently move the ball into Cardinals territory. As he will get plenty of opportunities, I believe Stafford will throw at least one touchdown to Kupp for the second straight week.
Player Prop: Brock Purdy Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-115) @ Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings' defense was actually very impressive last week, but let's face it, these 49ers are on a completely different level compared to the woeful Giants' offense. In Week 1, Purdy didn't throw a touchdown, but on multiple occasions, he set up his receivers to score—they just dropped passes they usually haul in (cough, cough, Brandon Aiyuk). In fact, I would go as far as to say Purdy was excellent on Monday night against the Jets. He simply didn’t need to be aggressive throwing the ball because of how great Jordan Mason was in his first career start, filling in for Christian McCaffrey, who sat out with a calf/Achilles injury. No matter who the 49ers running back is this week, I think the Vikings gameplan after watching the film will be to try to take the run away as much as possible. This will then give the 49ers outside playmakers such as Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel, and George Kittle to get open with greater ease then they did in their season opener. With that, I think Purdy finds a couple of teammates in the endzone and throws at the very least his first two touchdown passes of 2024 on Sunday in Minnesota.
Game Total: Chicago Bears @ Houston Texans Under 45.5 Total Points
For our game total prediction, we're going with an under for the second straight week in a primetime game. This week, I'm going with the Bears vs Texans game to go under the current line of 45.5 on Sunday Night Football. For the Bears, this is the first primetime game of Caleb Williams' NFL career. While I expect him to improve from his performance against the Titans in his debut last week, where he didn't even reach 100 passing yards, I could see nerves impacting his play throughout the night. Especially in a hostile environment like NRG Stadium, that is among some of the best atmosphere's in the NFL when the Texans are a good football team. Not to mention, both the Texans and Bears should have above-average defenses this season with strong defensive play callers as their head coaches in Matt Eberflus and DeMeco Ryans, which could keep the scoring low. Additionally, the Bears' receiving corps is already banged up and it sounds like rookie Rome Odunze will be out for Chicago. With Joe Mixon’s unreal first game for Houston last week where he had 30 carries for 160 yards and a touchdown, I expect both teams to lean on the run, keeping the clock moving for a big chunk of the game. Give me the under!
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