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Writer's pictureAaron Silcoff

The Silcoff Selections: NFL Week 4 Straight Up and Picks ATS


In consecutive weeks of my straight-up picks, I’ve finished with a record of 8-8. While I have yet to have a losing week in that category, I needs improvement on that front. However, I did achieve a solid 10-6 record against the spread last week, bringing us back to .500 for that segment as we head into Week 4. Here are the Silcoff Selections for the fourth week of the 2024 NFL season.


Records Last Week:

Straight Up: 8-8

Against The Spread: 10-6


Season Records:

Straight Up: 28-20

Against The Spread: 22-22-4


Thursday Night Football: Dallas Cowboys (1-2) @ New York Giants (1-2) | Line: Cowboys -5.5

If the Cowboys lose this game, I’m not saying it’s going to happen, but I wouldn’t be shocked if Jerry Jones decides to make a coaching change after what would be a third straight loss. Early on this season, Dallas has had major issues against the run, and I expect the Giants to try to capitalize on this early by continuing to feed Devin Singletary and getting the ball to Malik Nabers in short-yardage situations to start the game. All that said, Dallas is still the more talented team, and although I expect a fight from New York, the Cowboys improve to 2-2.


Prediction: Cowboys 27, Giants 20


Early Sunday Slate:


New Orleans Saints (2-1) @ Atlanta Falcons (1-2) | Line: Falcons -2.5

Alvin Kamara is on the injury report, and if he's limited in any way, the Saints will have a hard time establishing the run, as the gap between Kamara and his backup is quite dramatic to say the least. Over the past two weeks, the Falcons have impressed me by pulling off a win in Philly and going toe-to-toe with the Chiefs last Sunday despite it being a short week. As Kirk Cousins gets more comfortable, both health-wise and within this new offense, I expect him to keep building on his recent performances, leading the Falcons to their first home win of 2024.


Prediction: Falcons 21, Saints 20


Cincinnati Bengals (0-3) @ Carolina Panthers (1-2) | Line: Bengals -4

Andy Dalton has a chance to deliver the final blow to his former team, with the Bengals entering this game at a surprising 0-3. Following a quarterback change, the Panthers went into Las Vegas last week and secured a dominant win over the Raiders. While the vives in Carolina are likely as good as they have been in years after that win, I believe the more talented and desperate Bengals will come away with the win.


Prediction: Bengals 28, Panthers 18


Los Angeles Rams (1-2) @ Chicago Bears (1-2) | Line: Bears -3

Following a miraculous win last week, Matt Stafford and the Rams travel to the Windy City to face a Bears team that appears to be in free fall. Fortunately for Chicago, the Rams are dealing with injuries on offense, and their pass rush isn't as dominant without Aaron Donald. Playing at home, the Bears manage to secure a close victory and get back to .500.


Prediction: Bears 19, Rams 17


Minnesota Vikings (3-0) @ Green Bay Packers (2-1) | Line: Packers -2.5

Packers quarterback Jordan Love has returned to practice and looks on track to start Sunday against their NFC North rival. In Week 1, Love showed some inconsistency with his throws, and now in his first game back, he's scheduled to face what might be the best defense in football right now in the Vikings. While the Packers' defense has excelled at forcing turnovers, I expect Aaron Jones to have a huge performance on the ground against his former team. Meanwhile, Sam Darnold will continue to effectively manage the game for Kevin O'Connell and the Vikings, who will come away with an upset win at Lambeau Field.


Prediction: Vikings 26, Packers 21


Jacksonville Jaguars (0-3) @ Houston Texans (2-1) | Line: Texans -6.5

Call me crazy, but I can see a world where the Jags head into Houston and pull off the upset. We've seen many times before where a team get embarrassed on national television spend a week hearing how bad they are, only to regroup and come together for a win. Just look at what the Panthers did last week. That said, the Texans are not the Raiders, and you could argue that no team is playing worse in football right now than the Jaguars. I don't want to pile on Trevor Lawrence, but until he shows a consistent stretch of good play, I can’t confidently pick him to win a game against a great opponent. Jacksonville will keep it close, but the Texans will get the home win, sending their division rival into a shocking 0-4 start.


Prediction: Texans 23, Jaguars 17


Pittsburgh Steelers (3-0) @ Indianapolis Colts (1-2) | Line: Steelers -1.5

In a matchup featuring two of the most athletic quarterbacks in the NFL, I have to side with the team whose unit I trust the most. The Pittsburgh Steelers defense, which I've repeatedly said over the last few weeks has been the most impressive unit in the NFL this season to me, and as they prepare to face Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson. I expect them to force Richardson into multiple turnovers, creating short-field opportunities for their offense. Justin Fields, who, unlike his time in Chicago, has done a great job protecting the football this season, as he has thrown just one interception with no fumbles and is completing 73.3% of his passes. The Steelers win another close one and improve to 4-0.


Prediction: Steelers 17, Colts 13


Denver Broncos (1-2) @ New York Jets (2-1) | Line: Jets -7.5

This year’s edition of the Nathaniel Hackett revenge game may not carry the same drama as last year’s, but I still believe Jets QB Aaron Rodgers will have Sean Payton’s harsh comments about his OC and friend at the back of his mind. Last year, when Payton took over the Broncos, he called Hackett’s tenure "one of the worst coaching jobs in NFL history" and Rodgers was not happy. Last week, I predicted the Broncos would give the Buccaneers trouble, and they did. However, this week, I expect the Jets’ defense to put more pressure on rookie Bo Nix than the Bucs managed. Meanwhile, Rodgers should continue to find his rhythm in his fourth game back, going up against what is likely the weakest defense he's faced so far.


Prediction: Jets 28, Broncos 16


Philadelphia Eagles (2-1) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-1) | Line: Eagles -2

I am going to be honest, I don’t understand the line for this postseason rematch. The Eagles are likely to be without their top two receivers, A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith due to injury. On the other hand, the Buccaneers did surprisingly lose at home to the Broncos last week, and while their secondary is banged up, I’m not sure if Jalen Hurts and the Eagles will have the personnel this weekend to take advantage of that weakness with their star receivers likely sidelined. I’m picking the Buccaneers to get the home win, with Tom Brady on the call, and improve to 3-1.


Prediction: Buccaneers 23, Eagles 20


Late Sunday Slate


Washington Commanders (2-1) @ Arizona Cardinals (1-2) | Line: Cardinals -3.5

Who would have guessed a month ago that a Cardinals-Commanders game might end up being one of the most entertaining matchups of an NFL weekend? After his coming out party performance on Monday night, Commanders QB Jayden Daniels has emerged as the early-season favorite for Offensive Rookie of The Year, and against a mediocre Cardinals defense, I expect him to continue his strong play. However, Daniels’ lackluster defense will have its hands full as his Commanders will have to deal with fellow rookie Marvin Harrison Jr., who is starting to heat up as well. I see the Commanders as a classic letdown team this week after a big Monday night win in Cincinnati, and the Cardinals pull off a home victory in what should be an exciting one in the desert.


Prediction: Cardinals 24, Commanders 22


New England Patriots (1-2) @ San Francisco 49ers (1-2) | Line: 49ers -10

I don't have much to say here, despite their injuries, the 49ers are still by far the better team. With Nick Bosa and Fred Warner in the lineup to terrorize New England's awful offensive line, the 49ers should dominate. On a side note, I believe this will be Jacoby Brissett’s last game as the starter before the Patriots turn to Drake Maye in Week 5 against the Dolphins.


Prediction: 49ers 21, Patriots 3


Kansas City Chiefs (3-0) @ Los Angeles (2-1) I Line: Chiefs -7.5

A week ago, I was really looking forward to seeing Jim Harbaugh's Chargers face off against the Kansas City Chiefs for the first time. However, based on the current line, it doesn’t look like Chargers QB Justin Herbert will be in the lineup as he deals with a high ankle sprain, and even if he plays, he won’t be anywhere near 100%. Additionally, Chargers safety Derwin James will be out due to a one-game suspension. The Chiefs will likely come out victorious, but being the motivator he is, I expect Harbaugh to get the most out of this group and run the sh*t out of the ball, keeping the game closer than you might expect.


Prediction: Chiefs 24, Chargers 18


Cleveland Browns (1-2) @ Las Vegas Raiders (1-2) I Line: Browns -2

This very well might be the worst game on the Week 4 slate, and I have zero interest in watching it. As both teams continue to struggle. I am simply going with the team who has the best player on the field, Myles Garrett, and the better coach, Kevin Stefanski to get the win in a game nobody besides the people in the stadium will be watching.


Prediction: Browns 16, Raiders 10


Sunday Night Football: Buffalo Bills (3-0) @ Baltimore Ravens (1-2) I Line: Ravens -2.5

I was impressed with both the Bills and the Ravens last week, but I can see Buffalo possibly feeling themselves a bit after their 47-10 blowout win on Monday. Meanwhile, the Ravens looked like they finally got their offense rolling in Dallas and while their defense does still have major questions, give me Baltimore to build on that momentum and get the win at home on primetime improving to 2-2.


Prediction: Ravens 23, Bills 21


Monday Night Football Game #1: Tennessee Titans (0-3) @ Miami Dolphins (1-2) I Line: Dolphins -1

I’m done picking Will Levis to win games, the man is so inconsistent and I forget who said it, but the description I have heard about his play that best describes what we have seen so far from him is that he looks like he goes out there to play quarterback and after having a couple drinks. Assuming the Dolphins start Snoop Huntley, I’m going with Miami to take this one at home.


Prediction: Dolphins 17, Titans 14


Monday Night Football Game #2: Seattle Seahawks (3-0) @ Detroit Lions (2-1) I Line: Lions -3.5

It sounds like the Seahawks will be without either Byron Murphy or Leonard Williams (if not both) in this primetime game. Despite their recent success in Detroit over the last two seasons, I think this is just the wrong matchup for Seattle at this time, as their defensive line will be missing key contributors while their struggling offensive line faces the NFL's current sack leader in Aidan Hutchinson. The Lions get the win and hand the Seahawks their first loss of the season.


Prediction: Lions 24, Seahawks 21


ATS Picks Recap:

  • Cowboys -5.5

  • Saints +2.5

  • Bengals -4

  • Rams +3

  • Vikings +2.5

  • Jaguars +6.5

  • Steelers -1.5

  • Jets -7.5

  • Buccaneers +2

  • Commanders +3.5

  • 49ers -10

  • Chargers +7.5

  • Browns -2

  • Bills +2.5

  • Dolphins -1

  • Seahawks +3.5

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