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Writer's pictureAaron Silcoff

NFL Over/Under Win Totals I Absolutely Love

The 2024 NFL Schedule has finally been released! That means we know when the games are taking place and how the season will structured.


With that in mind, and after doing some very quick research, here are over-under win total's that jumped out to me at first glance.


New England Patriots Under 5.5 Wins:


In 2023, with the greatest defensive mind in the history of the game at the helm, the Patriots finished 4-13. Going into 2024, Bill Belichick is no longer with the team, and you expect me to believe they will get better? 


This is arguably the worst roster in the NFL, with a rookie head coach and quarterback who have little talent to work with on offence. Sure, the defence could be good, but I expect them to take a slight step considering the man who built that side of the ball is now a part of the ManningCast on Monday Night Football. 


Expect the Patriots to be picking once again near the top of the draft in 2025. 


Dallas Cowboys Under 10.5 Wins:


Has any team had a worse offseason in the NFL than the Dallas Cowboys?


After claiming the team was going "all-in", Jerry Jones' Cowboys have done quite the opposite. 


Dallas has lost talent on both sides of the ball without replacing it (Sorry Dallas Fans, Zeke is not the answer). Not to mention, the vibes just feel weird. 


Dak Prescott & Mike McCarthy are both entering the final years of their contracts without any assurances they will be extended, as well as franchise cornerstones Micah Parsons and CeeDee Lamb have made little progress on their extensions. 


After three straight, 12-5 seasons, the Cowboys take a step back. 


Atlanta Falcons Under 9.5 Wins:


The Falcons will be the most disappointing in the NFL this season for many.  Well, that is only if you have high expectations for this dysfunctional franchise.


The Falcons have one of the most brutal schedules I have seen thus far, and they have a quarterback who is coming off a torn Achilles, who they have lost the trust of. 


We have already seen this movie with Kirk Cousins. 


Remember in 2018 when Cousins arrived in Minnesota where he was thought to be the answer to bringing a Lombardi Trophy to Minneapolis? The Vikings didn't even make the playoffs that season. 


Falcons finish below .500


Kansas City Chiefs Over 11.5 Wins:



The Chiefs have won at least 12 games in 5 of the 6 seasons Patrick Mahomes has been QB1, the only year being last year, where they finished 11-6 and defended their Super Bowl title. 


Last year felt like a season from hell on the offensive side of the ball, and I have a hard time believing the Chiefs pass catchers can be any worse than they were in 2023. 


I expect the defence to remain elite to go along with the best coach and quarterback duo in the league by far, Kansas City will win at least 12 games in 2024. 


Seattle Seahawks Over 7.5 Wins:

Call me biased all you want, but this line should be 8.5. 


The Seahawks finished 9-8 last year with one of the worst defences in the league because Pete Carroll could not get a grasp on his side of the ball. 


Mike MacDonald was one of the most sought-after coaching candidates throughout this past hiring cycle, and he chose Seattle because there is no denying there is young talent on both sides of the ball where he will get more out of this defence than Carroll did in 2023. 


I also like the addition of Ryan Grubb coming in as offensive coordinator where he will take advantage of possibly the best receiver trio in the NFL with a more than capable quarterback in Geno Smith who in 2022 showed he can move the ball down the field. 


I expect the Seahawks to at least be fighting for a playoff spot in the final week of the season as they have with this core more often than not. Somewhere around the 8-10 win range sounds about right. 


Green Bay Packers Over 9.5 Wins:

The Packers went 9-8 and made the playoffs last year in Jordan Love's first year starting in 2023. Green Bay will win at least one more game, and Love likely will take another leap in 2024. 


The Packers could be a sneaky Super Bowl representative in the NFC if Love can continue to ball out as he did in the second half of last season going into 2024 with the addition in the backfield of Josh Jacobs to go along with all the young pass catchers the signal-caller has at his disposal. 


Green Bay gets to double-digit wins to get back to the post-season in year 2 of the Jordan Love era.


This feels like a borderline lock. 


Other Bets I Like:

  • Arizona Cardinals Over 6.5 Wins

  • Detroit Lions Over 10.5 Wins

  • New York Giants Under 6.5 Wins

  • New York Jets Under 9.5 Wins

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