Listen, I know this has been a rocky start to the NFL season for this segment. I have gone an awful 1-4 both times over the last two weeks, and it has brought my yearly record to a terrible 2-8. That being said, I'm ready to bounce back in Week 3 and my confidence in these five picks remains strong. I've looked the latest trends, player performances, and I am confident this is the week we get going.
Weekly Bets Record:
Overall Bets: 2-8
Against the Spread (ATS): 0-2
Underdog Moneyline Pick: 0-2
Anytime Touchdown: 1-1
Player Prop: 0-2
Over/Under: 1-1
Note: All lines and odds mentioned are based on Bet365 as of Thursday, September 19, 2024.
Against The Spread Pick: Philadelphia Eagles +2.5 (+100) @ New Orleans Saints
Going into this weekend, the New Orleans Saints are going to be the talk of the NFL world due to their hot start to the season, with their offense clicking on all cylinders and scoring 40+ points in back-to-back games. Meanwhile, in Philadelphia, things are not so sunny. The Eagles choked away their game on Monday Night Football, and as they head down to Louisiana, they'll once again be without their star receiver, A.J. Brown.
Given all these factors, the momentum seems to favor the Saints, and the public agrees, with 57% of public money currently on New Orleans to cover at home. However, in my opinion, this feels like the perfect letdown spot for a team riding high like New Orleans. I think the Eagles will come into this game focused and pissed off after losing at home on Monday, keeping the game close enough to cover.
In my straight-up picks, I did choose New Orleans to win, and I still believe they will, especially with Philly missing A.J. Brown. That said, I think the Eagles will find a way to cover on the road losing by 1-2 points.
Underdog Money Line Pick: Chicago Bears (+100) @ Indianapolis Colts
If you read my straight-up picks article, you might remember that I picked the Colts to win this game, and I still stand by that. However, it was definitely the toughest game for me to predict, and honestly, the only reason I'm going with Indy is that I think they'll be the more desperate team, looking to avoid an 0-3 start.
Truthfully, that's the only reason I can come up with for why the Colts will win on Sunday, because the matchup definitely favors the Bears. The Colts' run defense is the worst in football, and I think Chicago will prioritize running the ball to help ease Caleb Williams into this game after last week, where he was constantly under pressure behind the Bears' struggling offensive line. Not to mention, how good the Bears defense has looked over the first two weeks of the year and how bad Anthony Richardson was last week.
While I'm sticking with my Colts pick in the straight-up category, I needed to give my readers a plus-money winner for the weekend and given how difficult this game was for me to call, I'll have to go with the Bears for this category.
Anytime Touchdown Scorer: D.K. Metcalf (+162) Vs Miami Dolphins
D.K. Metcalf vs. Jalen Ramsey is always a fun matchup, and I think this Sunday in Seattle, Metcalf will find a way to get the best of Ramsey at least once and score a touchdown. After a quiet performance in Week 1, Metcalf was dominant in the Seahawks' Week 2 game in New England. Against the Patriots, Metcalf had a 10-catch performance, where he totaled 156 yards and a touchdown. As the Seahawks' new offense continues to settle in with new OC Ryan Grubb, I expect Geno Smith to target his WR1 down the field even more and with that, Metcalf finds a way into the end zone once again this Sunday at home.
Player Prop: Sam Darnold Under 231.5 Passing Yards (-110) Vs Houston Texans
In last week's upset win over the 49ers, Sam Darnold enjoyed perhaps the best game of his career, throwing for 268 yards and 2 touchdowns in the home victory. This weekend, I expect Darnold to face a tougher challenge in terms of yardage, as he will be going up against a top-10 pass defense in the Houston Texans, who are led by defensive mastermind DeMeco Ryans. Both the Texans and Vikings defenses have been excellent to start the year, and I could see both quarterbacks in this game falling short of high passing yardage totals this weekend. However, I'll lean toward Darnold struggling more due to the Texans' superior defensive personnel.
Game Total: Seahawks/Dolphins Over 41.5 Points
The reason this total is so low is obviously due to the absence of Tua Tagovailoa for the Dolphins. However, even with that, I like the over in this game for two reasons. First, there is still a lot of talent on both offenses, including playmakers at both receiver and running back positions. Second, both teams are still adjusting to new defensive schemes. I could see a scenario where the Dolphins run the crap out of the ball, while on the other side, Geno Smith continues to find his groove in the new offense, leading Seattle to score a good number of points.
Either way you slice it, I think this game could get exciting, even with Skylar Thompson under center for Miami and I think we get at least 42 combined points on Sunday.
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