As the NFL is a week-to-week league, it is easy to overreact to one game at a time.
Some teams come out strong to begin seasons such as last year's Eagles who started 10-1, then became a different team overnight who finished 11-6, losing their division lead, all blowing up in an embarrassing 32-9 wildcard loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
On the other hand, we have teams who start slow like the Buffalo Bills last season, who started 6-6 and then roared back to win the AFC East title for a fourth straight year.
The point is, it is a long season, and teams will begin the year hot or cold, but we truly don't know who these teams are until around American Thanksgiving.
With that in mind, here are three teams I believe could be below or just at .500 around mid to late October but who will ultimately be locked into a postseason spot in January.
Buffalo Bills:
As the Buffalo Bills transition into a Steffon Diggsless offence, I expect the first six weeks to be quite the challenge for Josh Allen and company. I have the Bills starting 2-4 through their first six games and can already see the NFL media acting as if the sky is falling in Buffalo while some will be calling for coach Sean McDermott's job.
Bills First Six Games Projection:
Week 1: VS ARZ-W (1-0)
Week 2: @ MIA (TNF)- L (1-1)
Week 3: VS JAX (MNF)- W (2-1)
Week 4: @ BAL (SNF)- L (2-2)
Week 5: @ HOU- L (2-3)
Week 6: @ NYJ (MNF)- L (2-4)
Ultimately as Josh Allen continues to build connections with his new targets and as the schedule softens up, the Bills will once again end the season as AFC East division champs for the fifth straight season as they look to finally get over their postseason demons.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers:
After having won the division the last three seasons, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are being pretty slept on this summer in the NFC South by the national media as a lot of the coverage in their division has been focused on the Atlanta Falcons after signing QB Kirk Cousins, as well as drafting QB Michael Penix Jr. at 8th overall in the NFL Draft.
Up until their week 11 bye, the Bucs schedule is fairly rough as it features Super Bowl contenders such as the Chiefs, Lions, Ravens, Eagles, and 49ers to go along with an additional three divisional games.
I could see Tampa being around 4-6 before their bye week but once their schedule lightens up and as Kirk Cousins' Falcons begin to play in games that mean a bit more, I expect Baker Mayfield and the Bucs to once again be hosting a wildcard game as NFC South Division champs yet again with a strong close to the year.
Jacksonville Jaguars
After last season's disastrous ending, the Jags would benefit greatly from a fast start to their season.
Unfortunately, the NFL did not care as the Jaguars will face 9 teams in their first 11 games who finished above .500 in 2023, and 8 of those teams ended up making the postseason (the only not being the Colts).
I see Jacksonville starting 1-3 in the first month and going into their bye week at 5-6.
However, I think Trevor Lawrence plays well after the bye and does enough to get the Jaguars back to playoffs finishing somewhere around 10-7 or 9-8. Also likely saving his coach Doug Pederson's job by making a 2nd playoff appearance in 3 seasons.
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